Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.493194 5.372744 6.349548 7.510615 8.848664 10.337784 12.115721
2025-03-09 3.023761 4.147265 5.540973 7.377238 9.710838 12.553720 16.252214
2025-03-16 2.124302 3.295516 4.896925 7.200160 10.373197 14.529270 20.311074
2025-03-23 1.706505 2.940768 4.771734 7.600156 11.754596 17.510889 25.937684
2025-03-30 1.344150 2.557599 4.498994 7.698361 12.672084 19.908649 30.974332
2025-04-06 1.065780 2.228229 4.224236 7.714164 13.423088 22.095314 35.868791
2025-04-13 0.851543 1.949539 3.965653 7.690178 14.073022 24.152511 40.709628
2025-04-20 0.767675 1.893342 4.075373 8.286479 15.770600 27.948556 48.474496
2025-04-27 0.657381 1.753150 3.999933 8.533676 16.891702 30.903227 55.127153
2025-05-04 0.574732 1.650192 3.973813 8.858415 18.166963 34.194635 62.536902
2025-05-11 0.477876 1.486545 3.791402 8.850092 18.829073 36.490855 68.451906
2025-05-18 0.377430 1.282640 3.480945 8.533592 18.870653 37.700129 72.598686
2025-05-25 0.289523 1.085126 3.149661 8.134991 18.734208 38.629539 76.426927
2025-06-01 0.237094 0.971335 2.992869 8.090723 19.296494 40.878845 82.753055
2025-06-08 0.189655 0.854196 2.800784 7.933854 19.605970 42.676840 88.390311
2025-06-15 0.172934 0.834848 2.862356 8.381378 21.233928 47.101642 99.109587
2025-06-22 0.147339 0.772652 2.791356 8.492872 22.139414 50.177966 107.491005
2025-06-29 0.123306 0.705537 2.690374 8.511753 22.837182 52.887056 115.334476
2025-07-06 0.102287 0.640481 2.579637 8.486266 23.427116 55.413953 122.969907
2025-07-13 0.098452 0.651610 2.712732 9.134917 25.648008 61.429808 137.722940
2025-07-20 0.087353 0.622771 2.708497 9.403643 26.989564 65.696110 149.244545
2025-07-27 0.078957 0.603544 2.732830 9.756448 28.565720 70.552879 162.188058
2025-08-03 0.066261 0.553713 2.637356 9.747419 29.248774 73.541027 171.519250